A Model for Internet Traffic Growth

  • Johannes W. Meijer


A simple model that let us predict the doubling time of Internet traffic is
presented. The growth of this traffic depends on three factors, that is the doubling
time of the number of users that are online, the doubling time of the time that they
spend online and the doubling time of the bandwidth provided to the end user by
telecommunication networks. The first and the second depend primarily on marketing
strategies while the last one depends on Moore's Law. In 2006 in Europe these three
doubling times led to an expected doubling time for the traffic on the Internet of
roughly 1.2 years. The real value of the doubling time of the traffic of a group of
European Internet Exchanges agrees well with the expected value.

Artículos de Investigación