Rainfall variability in Suriname and its relationship with the Tropical Pacific ENSO SST anomalies and the Atlantic SST anomalies

  • Riad Nurmohamed
  • Sieuwnath Naipal
  • Cor Becker
Palabras clave: climate variability, El Niño, La Niña, rainfall, Suriname, statistical analyses, tropical Atlantic SST anomalies, Pacific Niño SST anomalies

Resumen

Spatial correlations (r) in the annual rainfall anomalies are analyzed using principle
component analyses (PCA). Cross correlation analysis and composites are used to
measure the influence of sea surface temperatures anomalies (SSTAs) in the tropical
Atlantic and tropical Pacific Ocean with the seasonal rainfall in Suriname. It is shown
that the spatial and time variability in rainfall is mainly determined by the meridional
movement of the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). It occurs that the rainfall
anomalies are fairly uniformly over the whole country. The strongest correlation
between the December-January rainfall (short wet season) at station Cultuurtuin is
found with the SSTAs in the Pacific region and is about ck
Nino 1+2 = 0.59 at lag 1
month. In March-May rainfall (beginning long wet season) there is a lagged correlation
with the SSTAs in the Pacific region (clag 3 Nino 1+2 = 0.59). The June-August rainfall
(end part of long wet season) shows the highest correlation with SSTAs in the TSA
region and is about c = -0.52 for lag 0. In the September-November long dry season
there is also a lagged correlation with the TSA SSTAs of about clag 3 = 0.66. The
different correlations and predictors can be used for seasonal rainfall predictions.

Publicado
2006-12-01
Sección
Artículos de Investigación