Development of scenarios for future climate change in Suriname

  • Riad Nurmohamed
  • Sieuwnath Naipal
Palabras clave: climate scenarios, global circulation models, precipitation, Suriname, temperature

Resumen

This paper describes one way of developing climate change scenarios for
temperature and precipitation, using results of five atmospheric-ocean global
circulation models (AO-GCMs). The scenarios are developed using the
MAGICC/SCENGEN model and the GCMs, having a spatial resolution of 0.5º x 0.5º
longitude/latitude. Four global emission scenarios, SRES A1, A2, B1, B2, and three
time horizons, year 2020, 2050 and 2080, are used. The results shows that there is a
relative high correlation (0.66 to 0.86) between the monthly observed temperature data
and the modeled baseline data by the GCMs, while weak correlation (0.02 to 0.47) is
found between the monthly observed precipitation and modeled baseline data by the
CSI296, GFDL90 and ECH498 model, and a relative high correlation (0.66 to 0.85) by
the HAD300 and CCSR96 model. Most of the GCMs follow the seasonal pattern of
the temperature and precipitation in Suriname well. The model outputs show that for
both temperature and precipitation, the A1, B1 and B2 scenarios give similar results,
which differ significantly from the A2 scenario. The climate change scenarios for
Suriname lead to an annual increase in mean temperature up to 2.9ºC in 2080 for
SRES A2, and 2.6ºC for SRES A1, B1, B2, reference to 1961-1990. For the annual
precipitation, an increase is expected up to 342.3 mm (16%) in 2080 for SRES A2 and
a decrease in annual precipitation up to 102.6 mm (5%) in 2080 for SRES A1, B1, B2,
reference to 1981-2000. The outputs of the SRES A1, B1, B2 indicate an increase in
mean precipitation up till 2080 during January and April, and a decrease in mean
precipitation during May and December. The SRES A2 output indicates however an
increase in mean precipitation from December till March, and from July till October,
and a decrease from April till June, and in November. The future increase in mean
temperature will lead to an increase in evaporation/evapotranspiration and
correspondingly changes in future precipitation. Wet and dry seasons in Suriname will
be affected, resulting in an overall increase or decrease of water resources. There is
therefore a need to develop high resolution scenarios (scale of about 25-50 km), using
regional climate models (RCMs) in order to assess the impact of climate change on
smaller scales.

Publicado
2006-12-01
Sección
Artículos de Investigación